A new study from Dartmouth College confirms that standardized test scores remain one of the strongest predictors of student performance in college.
Recently, a team of Dartmouth professors published a comprehensive study showing that SAT and ACT scores explain about 22% of the variation in first-year GPA, compared to just 9% explained by high school GPA alone. When combined, the two metrics account for 25% of the variation, reinforcing the SAT’s continued relevance in evaluating college readiness.
The study also emphasized that this predictive value holds across all demographics. In fact, the data suggests that test-optional policies may unintentionally disadvantage high-achieving students from under-resourced schools—students who often benefit the most from submitting strong scores.
Another key insight: test-optional admissions have not significantly improved socioeconomic diversity. Although application numbers briefly increased, the share of first-generation or lower-income students remained largely unchanged. In many cases, removing a standardized metric has made it harder to spot talented applicants from less-familiar schools.
Want to learn more about this? You can access the full Dartmouth study here, or visit Dartmouth Admissions for their summary and perspective on the findings.
